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Retrieval and Argumentation Enhanced Multi-Agent LLMs for Judgmental Forecasting
Gorur, Deniz, Rago, Antonio, Toni, Francesca
Judgmental forecasting is the task of making predictions about future events based on human judgment. This task can be seen as a form of claim verification, where the claim corresponds to a future event and the task is to assess the plausibility of that event. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-agent framework for claim verification, whereby different agents may disagree on claim veracity and bring specific evidence for and against the claims, represented as quantitative bipolar argumentation frameworks (QBAFs). We then instantiate the framework for supporting claim verification, with a variety of agents realised with Large Language Models (LLMs): (1) ArgLLM agents, an existing approach for claim verification that generates and evaluates QBAFs; (2) RbAM agents, whereby LLM-empowered Relation-based Argument Mining (RbAM) from external sources is used to generate QBAFs; (3) RAG-ArgLLM agents, extending ArgLLM agents with a form of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) of arguments from external sources. Finally, we conduct experiments with two standard judgmental forecasting datasets, with instances of our framework with two or three agents, empowered by six different base LLMs. We observe that combining evidence from agents can improve forecasting accuracy, especially in the case of three agents, while providing an explainable combination of evidence for claim verification.
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Sea level rise could plunge 100 MILLION buildings underwater, warn scientists - so, is your home at risk?
AOC hit by shockingly crude sex insult by White House after she mocked'TINY' Stephen Miller Biden ordered CIA cover-up of his'corrupt' business ties to Ukraine, astonishing secret files show NYC girls aged 12 and 13 meet tragic end after going subway surfing across Williamsburg Bridge at 3.10am ERIC TRUMP: The darkest day in my dad's marriage to Melania... before the ugly truth was exposed More girls are starting their periods younger than ever before - scientists think they've finally found what's causing it Taylor Swift reveals truth behind raunchy song about Travis Kelce's manhood Meghan is accused of'giggling as model stumbles on the catwalk': More Paris Fashion Week disasters emerge, including awkward moment with Kristin Scott Thomas The TRUTH to the doting mother who slaughtered her children and husband told by those she'd been quietly tormenting for years The troubled background of delivery man stabbed by Mark Sanchez... as he launches million-dollar lawsuit and sparks civil war at Fox Revealed: Which slimming jab REALLY works best. The doctors' ultimate expert guide on which to pick, how to save money, beat every side effect... and what you need to know about the'golden dose' I haven't heard that name in so long' Ominous warning for humanity as birds suddenly adopt'unsettling' behavior And a humiliating lifeline: Backroom secrets of Taylor Swift and Blake Lively... after hit new song Bottled water contains dangerous levels of microplastics that lodge in vital organs and raise cancer risk', scientists warn Sea level rise could plunge 100 MILLION buildings underwater, warn scientists - so, is your home at risk? Rising sea levels could plunge more than 100 million buildings underwater by 2100, scientists have warned. The experts in Canada estimated how many buildings in Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America would be flooded by different sea level changes. Their assessment found that sea level rises of just 1.6 feet (0.5 metres) would flood three million buildings in the global south alone.
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A Review on Single-Problem Multi-Attempt Heuristic Optimization
Echevarrieta, Judith, Arza, Etor, Pérez, Aritz, Ceberio, Josu
In certain real-world optimization scenarios, practitioners are not interested in solving multiple problems but rather in finding the best solution to a single, specific problem. When the computational budget is large relative to the cost of evaluating a candidate solution, multiple heuristic alternatives can be tried to solve the same given problem, each possibly with a different algorithm, parameter configuration, initialization, or stopping criterion. The sequential selection of which alternative to try next is crucial for efficiently identifying the one that provides the best possible solution across multiple attempts. Despite the relevance of this problem in practice, it has not yet been the exclusive focus of any existing review. Several sequential alternative selection strategies have been proposed in different research topics, but they have not been comprehensively and systematically unified under a common perspective. This work presents a focused review of single-problem multi-attempt heuristic optimization. It brings together suitable strategies to this problem that have been studied separately through algorithm selection, parameter tuning, multi-start and resource allocation. These strategies are explained using a unified terminology within a common framework, which supports the development of a taxonomy for systematically organizing and classifying them.
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Learning-Based Testing for Deep Learning: Enhancing Model Robustness with Adversarial Input Prioritization
Rahman, Sheikh Md Mushfiqur, Eisty, Nasir
Context: Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are increasingly deployed in critical applications, where resilience against adversarial inputs is paramount. However, whether coverage-based or confidence-based, existing test prioritization methods often fail to efficiently identify the most fault-revealing inputs, limiting their practical effectiveness. Aims: This project aims to enhance fault detection and model robustness in DNNs by integrating Learning-Based Testing (LBT) with hypothesis and mutation testing to efficiently prioritize adversarial test cases. Methods: Our method selects a subset of adversarial inputs with a high likelihood of exposing model faults, without relying on architecture-specific characteristics or formal verification, making it adaptable across diverse DNNs. Results: Our results demonstrate that the proposed LBT method consistently surpasses baseline approaches in prioritizing fault-revealing inputs and accelerating fault detection. By efficiently organizing test permutations, it uncovers all potential faults significantly faster across various datasets, model architectures, and adversarial attack techniques. Conclusion: Beyond improving fault detection, our method preserves input diversity and provides effective guidance for model retraining, further enhancing robustness. These advantages establish our approach as a powerful and practical solution for adversarial test prioritization in real-world DNN applications.
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Even More Kawaii than Real-Person-Driven VTubers? Understanding How Viewers Perceive AI-Driven VTubers
Wei, Yiluo, He, Yupeng, Tyson, Gareth
VTubers, digital personas represented by animated avatars, have gained massive popularity. Traditionally, VTubers are operated and voiced by human controllers known as Nakanohito. The reliance on Nakanohito, however, poses risks due to potential personal controversies and operational disruptions. The emergence of AI-driven VTubers offers a new model free from these human constraints. While AI-driven VTubers present benefits such as continuous operation and reduced scandal risk, they also raise questions about authenticity and audience engagement. Therefore, to gain deeper insights, we conduct a case study, investigating viewer perceptions of Neuro-sama, the most popular AI-driven VTuber with 845k followers on Twitch and 753k followers on YouTube. We analyze 108k Reddit posts and 136k YouTube comments, aiming to better understand viewer motivations, how AI constructs the virtual persona, and perceptions of the AI as Nakanohito. Our findings enhance the understanding of AI-driven VTubers and their impact on digital streaming culture.
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A Robust Pipeline for Differentially Private Federated Learning on Imbalanced Clinical Data using SMOTETomek and FedProx
Federated Learning (FL) presents a groundbreaking approach for collaborative health research, allowing model training on decentralized data while safeguarding patient privacy. FL offers formal security guarantees when combined with Differential Privacy (DP). The integration of these technologies, however, introduces a significant trade-off between privacy and clinical utility, a challenge further complicated by the severe class imbalance often present in medical datasets. The research presented herein addresses these interconnected issues through a systematic, multi-stage analysis. An FL framework was implemented for cardiovascular risk prediction, where initial experiments showed that standard methods struggled with imbalanced data, resulting in a recall of zero. To overcome such a limitation, we first integrated the hybrid Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique with Tomek Links (SMOTETomek) at the client level, successfully developing a clinically useful model. Subsequently, the framework was optimized for non-IID data using a tuned FedProx algorithm. Our final results reveal a clear, non-linear trade-off between the privacy budget (epsilon) and model recall, with the optimized FedProx consistently out-performing standard FedAvg. An optimal operational region was identified on the privacy-utility frontier, where strong privacy guarantees (with epsilon 9.0) can be achieved while maintaining high clinical utility (recall greater than 77%). Ultimately, our study provides a practical methodological blueprint for creating effective, secure, and accurate diagnostic tools that can be applied to real-world, heterogeneous healthcare data.
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An Expansion-Based Approach for Quantified Integer Programming
Hartisch, Michael, Chew, Leroy
Quantified Integer Programming (QIP) bridges multiple domains by extending Quantified Boolean Formulas (QBF) to incorporate general integer variables and linear constraints while also generalizing Integer Programming through variable quantification. As a special case of Quantified Constraint Satisfaction Problems (QCSP), QIP provides a versatile framework for addressing complex decision-making scenarios. Additionally, the inclusion of a linear objective function enables QIP to effectively model multistage robust discrete linear optimization problems, making it a powerful tool for tackling uncertainty in optimization. While two primary solution paradigms exist for QBF -- search-based and expansion-based approaches -- only search-based methods have been explored for QIP and QCSP. We introduce an expansion-based approach for QIP using Counterexample-Guided Abstraction Refinement (CEGAR), adapting techniques from QBF. We extend this methodology to tackle multistage robust discrete optimization problems with linear constraints and further embed it in an optimization framework, enhancing its applicability. Our experimental results highlight the advantages of this approach, demonstrating superior performance over existing search-based solvers for QIP in specific instances. Furthermore, the ability to model problems using linear constraints enables notable performance gains over state-of-the-art expansion-based solvers for QBF.
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Search (1.00)
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Phoeni6: a Systematic Approach for Evaluating the Energy Consumption of Neural Networks
Oliveira-Filho, Antônio, Silva-de-Souza, Wellington, Sakuyama, Carlos Alberto Valderrama, Xavier-de-Souza, Samuel
This paper presents Phoeni6, a systematic approach for assessing the energy consumption of neural networks while upholding the principles of fair comparison and reproducibility. The methodology automates energy evaluations through containerized tools, robust database management, and versatile data models. In the first case study, the energy consumption of AlexNet and MobileNet was compared using raw and resized images. Results showed that MobileNet is up to 6.25% more energy-e fficient for raw images and 2.32% for resized datasets, while maintaining competitive accuracy levels. In the second study, the impact of image file formats on energy consumption was evaluated. BMP images reduced energy usage by up to 30% compared to PNG, highlighting the influence of file formats on energy e fficiency. These findings emphasize the importance of Phoeni6 in optimizing energy consumption for diverse neural network applications and establishing sustainable artificial intelligence practices. Introduction Deep Neural Networks (DNN) are being used with relative success in fields such as computer vision and natural language processing) [1, 2]. A growing number of initiatives have been promoting the development of these networks to solve everyday problems, including optimizing resource allocation in energy-constrained environments like wireless sensor networks [3]. There are repositories [4, 5] with hundreds of networks created and made available in lists ordered by accuracy, which is the primary metric used to assess the quality of each network. Their results emphasize that the search for energy efficiency can significantly benefit mobile devices' autonomy and positively a ff ect the financial costs and carbon footprints of large data centers distributed worldwide. These works measure energy to evaluate their technique. There is an evident global concern for the energy consumption of software products that a ffect people's daily lives--neural networks are becoming one of them. This fact has important implications on the criteria used to choose these products. It is reasonable to say that energy consumption is becoming part of the criteria for selecting neural networks, just as accuracy is. However, unlike the accuracy calculation, which fundamentally depends on the dataset and the procedures used during the training phase, the energy calculation depends on the devices involved. This aspect adds extra challenges to reproducing the results (RR) and making fair comparisons (FC) between di ff er-ent networks [24]. Evaluating the energy consumption of neural networks while adhering to the principles of Fair Comparison (FC) and Result Reproducibility (RR) presents significant challenges.
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